Beating the Drums of War: Provoking Iran into "Firing the First Shot"

14th January 2012

by Michel Chossudovsky

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28652

[Author's Note: SAY NO TO WAR ON IRAN, Spread the word, forward this article, post it on Facebook. Our objective at Global Research is to curb the flow of media disinformation, reverse the tide of war and restore World peace.]


Introduction

While the possibility of a war with Iran is acknowledged in US news reports, its regional and global implications are barely analyzed.

Very few people in America are aware or informed regarding the devastation and massive loss of life which would occur in the case of a US-Israeli sponsored attack on Iran.

The media is involved in a deliberate process of camouflage and distortion.

War preparations under a "Global Strike" Concept, centralized and coordinated by US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) are not front page news in comparison to the most insignificant issues of public concern, including the local level crime scene or the tabloid gossip reports on Hollywood celebrities. 

The "Globalization of War" involving the hegemonic deployment of a formidable US-NATO military force in all major regions of the World is inconsequential in the eyes of the Western media.  

The broader implications of this war are either trivialized or not mentioned. People are led to believe that war is part of a "humanitarian mandate" and that both Iran as well as Iran's allies, namely China and Russia, constitute an unrelenting  threat to global security and "Western democracy". 

While the most advanced weapons system are used, America's wars are never presented as "killing operations" resulting in extensive civilian casualties. 

While the incidence of "collateral damage" is acknowledged, US-led wars are heralded as an unquestionable instrument of "peace-making" and "democratization".

This twisted notion that waging war is "a worthy cause", becomes entrenched in the inner consciousness of millions of people. A  framework of "good versus evil" overshadows an understanding of the causes and devastating consequences of  war.

Within this mindset, realties as well as concepts are turned upside down. War becomes peace. The lie becomes the truth. The humanitarian mandate of the Pentagon and NATO cannot be challenged.

When "going after the bad guys", no options can be taken off the table.  An inquisitorial doctrine similar to that of the Spanish Inquisition, prevails. People are no longer allowed to think. 

Iran is a country of close to 80 million people. It constitutes a major and significant regional military and economic power. It has ten percent of global oil and gas reserves, more than five times those of the United States of America.

The conquest of Iran's oil riches is the driving force behind America's military agenda. Iran's oil and gas industry is the unspoken trophy of  the US led war.

While the US is on a war footing, Iran has  --for more than ten years-- been actively developing its military capabilities in the eventuality of a US sponsored attack.

If hostilities were to break out between Iran and the Western military alliance, this could trigger a regional war extending from the Mediterranean to the Chinese border, potentially leading humanity into the realm of a World War III scenario.

The Russian government, in a recent statement, has warned the US and NATO  that "should Iran get drawn into any political or military hardships, this will be a direct threat to our national security.” What this signifies is that Russia is Iran's military ally and that Russia will act militarily if Iran is attacked. 

Military Deployment

Iran is the target of US-Israel-NATO war plans.

Advanced weapons systems have been deployed.

US and allied Special Forces as well as intelligence operatives are already on the ground inside Iran. US military drones are involved in spying and reconnaissance activities. 

Bunker buster B61 tactical nuclear weapons are slated to be used against Iran in retaliation for its alleged nuclear weapons program. Ironically, in the words of US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Iran does not possess a nuclear weapons program. “Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No.”

The risk of armed hostilities between the US-Israel led coalition and Iran is, according to Israeli military analysts "dangerously close".

There has been a massive deployment of troops which have been dispatched to the Middle East, not to mention the redeployment of US and allied troops previously stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Nine thousand US troops have been dispatched to Israel to participate in what is described by the Israeli press as the largest joint air defense war exercise in Israeli history, The drill, called “Austere Challenge 12,” is scheduled to take place within the next few weeks Its stated purpose "is to test multiple Israeli and US air defense systems, especially the “Arrow” system, which the country specifically developed with help from the US to intercept Iranian missiles."

Reports also suggest that substantial increase in the number of reservists who are being deployed to the Middle East. Reports confirm that reservist US Air Force personnel have been dispatched to military bases in South West Asia (Persian Gulf). From Minnesota, more than 120 Airmen including pilots, navigators, mechanics, etc. departed for the Middle East on January 8.  Reservist US air force personnel from bases in North Carolina and Georgia "expect to deploy with their units in coming months". (See fayobserver.com December 18, 2011)

Reserve units from the US Coastguard have also been dispatched to the Middle East.(Coast Guard Reservists Head to Middle East military.com, January 5, 2012)

From these local reports, however, it is impossible to establish the overall (net) increase of US reservists from different divisions of the US military, who have been assigned to "operation Iran war". 

Army reservists from the UK are also been sent to the Middle East.

US Troops to Israel

Israel has become a de facto US military outpost. US and Israeli command structures are being integrated, with close consultations between the Pentagon and Israel's Ministry of Defense.

A large number of US troops will be stationed in Israel once the war games are completed.  The assumption of this military deployment is the staging of a joint US-Israeli air attack on Iran. Military escalation towards a regional war is part of the military scenario:   

Thousands of US troops began descending on Israel this week. ... many would be staying up to the end of the year as part of the US-IDF deployment in readiness for a military engagement with Iran and its possible escalation into a regional conflict. They will be joined by a US aircraft carrier. The warplanes on its decks will fly missions with Israeli Air Force jets. The 9,000 US servicemen gathering in Israel in the coming weeks are mostly airmen, missile interceptor teams, marines, seamen, technicians and intelligence officers.

...

Tehran too is walking a taut tightrope. It is staging military's maneuvers every few days to assuring the Iranian people that its leaders are fully prepared to defend the country against an American or Israeli strike on its national nuclear program. By this stratagem, Iran's ground, sea and air forces are maintained constantly at top war readiness to thwart any surprise attack.

The joint US-Israeli drill will test multiple Israeli and US air defense systems against incoming missiles and rockets, according to the official communiqué. (DEBKAfile, January 6, 2012)

War Games

Missile defense and naval war games are being conducted simultaneously. US-Israeli war games --involving an impressive display of naval power-- are slated to be held in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Iran has announced that it will be conducting its own war games in the Persian Gulf in February.

An impressive deployment of troops and advanced military hardware is unfolding. Britain's Royal Navy has dispatched her newest and most advanced warship, Type 45 destroyer HMS Daring, "which has a “stealth” design to help avoid detection by radar".

Britain's HMS Daring

Meanwhile, The Islamic Republic of Iran is also on a war footing. Iran's Armed Forces is in an advanced stage of preparedness to defend the country's borders as well as retaliate against a US-Israel led attack. Iran has completed a 10-day naval exercise near the Strait of Hormuz in December. It has now announced  that it is planning new naval drills codenamed "The Great Prophet", which are slated to take place in February. 

Iran's December war games involved the test firing of two long range missiles systems, including the Qadar (a powerful sea-to-shore missile) and the Nour surface-to-surface missile. "According to Iranian state news, the Nour is an ‘advanced radar-evading, target-seeking, guided and controlled missile’." (See The Pentagon to Send US Troops to Israel. Iran is the Unspoken Target, Global Research, January 4, 20122 

"Additionally, the Iranian military reportedly test-fired numerous other short, medium and long-range missiles.... Iranian authorities reported that they test-fired the medium-range, surface-to-air, radar-evading Mehrab missile." (Ibid)

Iranian Missile Tests

War games by the US-Israel coalition are being held within a short distance of Iranian territorial waters. The timing of these games coincides with those of Iran. 

The crucial question: Is the Pentagon seeking to deliberately trigger a military confrontation in the Persian Gulf with a view to providing a pretext and a justification to waging an all out war on the Islamic Republic of Iran?

US military strategists admit that the US Navy would be at disadvantage in relation to Iranian forces in the narrow corridor of the Strait of Hormuz: 

"Despite its might and shear strength, geography literally works against U.S. naval power in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The relative narrowness of the Persian Gulf makes it like a channel, at least in a strategic and military context. Figuratively speaking, the aircraft carriers and warships of the U.S. are confined to narrow waters or are closed in within the coastal waters of the Persian Gulf. ... Even the Pentagon’s own war simulations have shown that a war in the Persian Gulf with Iran would spell disaster for the United States and its military. (Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, The Geo-Politics of the Strait of Hormuz: Could the U.S. Navy be defeated by Iran in the Persian Gulf?, Global Research,  January 8, 2012)

Triggering a War Pretext Incident: Provoking Iran to "Throw the First Punch"

Is the Obama administration prepared to sacrifice one or more vessels of the Fifth Fleet, resulting in extensive casualties among soldiers and sailors, with a view to mustering public support for a war on Iran on the grounds of self-defense?

As documented by Richard Sanders, the strategy of triggering a war pretext incident has been used throughout American military history.

"Throughout history, war planners have used various forms of deception to trick their enemies. Because public support is so crucial to the process of initiating and waging war, the home population is also subject to deceitful stratagems. The creation of false excuses to justify going to war is a major first step in constructing public support for such deadly ventures. Perhaps the most common pretext for war is an apparently unprovoked enemy attack. Such attacks, however, are often fabricated, incited or deliberately allowed to occur. They are then exploited to arouse widespread public sympathy for the victims, demonize the attackers and build mass support for military “retaliation.”

Like schoolyard bullies who shout ‘He hit me first!’, war planners know that it is irrelevant whether the opponent really did ‘throw the first punch.’ As long as it can be made to appear that the attack was unprovoked, the bully receives license to ‘respond’ with force. Bullies and war planners are experts at taunting, teasing and threatening their opponents. If the enemy cannot be goaded into ‘firing the first shot,’ it is easy enough to lie about what happened. Sometimes, that is sufficient to rationalize a schoolyard beating or a genocidal war.

Such trickery has probably been employed by every military power throughout history. During the Roman empire, "the cause for war" -- casus belli -- was often invented to conceal the real reasons for war. Over the millennia, although weapons and battle strategies have changed greatly, the deceitful strategem of using pretext incidents to ignite war has remained remarkably consistent. (See How to Start a War: The American Use of War Pretext Incidents. Global research, January 9, 2012)

Pearl Harbor stands out as the casus belli, the pretext and justification for America's entry into World War II.

President Roosevelt knew that Pearl Harbor was going to be attacked by Japan and did nothing to prevent it. At a November 25 1941 meeting of FDR’s war council, "Secretary of War Henry Stimson’s notes speak of the prevailing consensus:  'The question was how we should maneuver them [the Japanese] into … firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves.'” (See Patrick Buchanan,  Did FDR Provoke Pearl Harbor? Global Research, December 7, 2011).

In the wake of the attack, America was beating the drums of war, while also concealing the fact that "the FDR administration knew, but failed to act".

"A massive cover-up followed Pearl Harbor a few days later, ... when the Chief of Staff ordered a lid put on the affair. ‘Gentlemen,' he told half a dozen officers, ‘this goes to the grave with us.'" (John Toland, Infamy: Pearl Harbor and its Aftermath, Doubleday, 1982, p. 321). 

According to Professor Francis Boyle with reference to the ongoing showdown between the US Navy and Iran in the Persian Gulf:: "Once again, it looks to me like what FDR did in 1941 when he sacrificed the Pacific Fleet and its men at Pearl Harbor—except for the carriers—in order to get the USA into World War II despite the fervent desire of the American People and Congress to stay out. Déjà vu all over again. Back to the Future " (Francis Boyle, January 13, 2011, email communication to author)

In contrast to the events of 1941, the US Congress in 2012 is broadly supportive of waging a war on Iran and the American people are, as a result of media disinformation, largely unaware of the devastating implications of a US-Israeli attack.  .

Thematic Justifications: Demonizing the Enemy

Apart from the "incident" whereby the enemy is incited to "throw the first punch", "thematic justifications" are used to demonize the enemy and justify a casus belli. WMD and regime change in the case of Iraq (2003), Al Qaeda and the 9/11 attacks in the case of Afghanistan (2001), "regime change" and "democratization" in the case of Libya (2011).

The thematic justifications to wage war on Iran include the following:  

1. Iran is accused of developing a nuclear weapons program,  2. Iran is a "Rogue State" which defies the "international community" and constitutes a threat the Western World, 3. Iran wants "to wipe Israel off the map", 4. Iran is responsible for supporting and abetting the 9/11 terrorist attacks,  5. Iran is an authoritarian and undemocratic country thereby justifying a "Responsibility to Protect" (R2P) intervention with a view to instating democracy.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States

In case of a war with Iran, NATO member states as well as NATO partners of the "Mediterranean Dialogue" including the Five GCC Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Jordan would be involved.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have a formidable weapons arsenal (Made in America), which would be used against Iran on behalf of the US led coalition. (see The Gulf  Military Balance in 2010: An Overview | Center for Strategic and International Studies)

The US has more than 30 military bases and facilities including its naval base in Bahrain, US Central command (CENTCOM) headquarters in Qatar, not to mention its military installations in Pakistan, Turkey and Afghanistan (see map)

* US military base or facility surrounding Iran

From Washington's standpoint, Saudi Arabia's Royal Air Force is meant to act as a proxy for the USAF, operating on the principle of "interoperability". Saudi Arabia's Air Force is equipped with the most advanced combat planes including (among others) the Eurofighter Typhoons, Tornado IDS, F-15 and F-15E Eagle fighters. In October 2010, Washington announced its largest arms sale in US history, a $60.5 billion purchase by Saudi Arabia. These weapons although acquired by Saudi Arabia are de facto part of a US sponsored weapons arsenal, which is to be used in close coordination and consultation with the Pentagon. 

It should, nonetheless, be emphasised that there is reluctance within the ruling Saudi and Gulf States elites, to actively participating in a regional war, which would inevitably lead to Iranian retaliatory aerial attacks.

Escalation: Towards a Broader Regional War

If aerial attacks were to be launched, Iran would retaliate with missile attacks directed against Israel as well as against US military facilities in the Persian Gulf, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Iran has an advanced Russian S 300 air defense system. It is equipped with medium and long range missile capabilities: The Shahab 3 and Sejjil missiles have a range of  approximately 2,000 km, enabling them to strike targets in Israel. The Ghadr 1 has a range of 1,800 km. (See Haaretz, September 28, 2009, http://www.haaretz.com/news/background-how-big-is-iran-s-military-1.7084

The war with Iran would not be limited to aerial bombardments. A land war could follow with Turkey playing a strategic military role on behalf of the US-Israel led coalition.

Turkey's ground forces are of the order of 500,000. Iran's are of a similar order of magnitude: 465,000 regular forces, which would immediately be deployed in border areas with Iran and Syria as well as within Syria.  

Iran's Air Force and Navy personnel are respectively of the order of 52,000 and 28,000. The Revolutionary Guards, which constitute Iran's elite forces, are of the order of 120,000. Moreover, Iran has a significant paramilitary force called the Basij. (see Table below)

The war would also overflow into Syria (which is an ally of Iran, Palestine, Lebanon and Jordan involving the participation of  Syrian ground forces as well as Hezbollah, which effectively repealed Israel's 2006 invasion of Lebanon. In recent developments, Iran has increased its military aid to Syria and Lebanon.

In turn, Russia has a naval base in Southern Syria and military cooperation agreements with both Syria and Iran, involving the presence of Russian military advisers.

Russia is deploying warships out of its naval base in Tartus including aircraft carrying missile cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov. "The deployment ... follows the US move to station the George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group" off the Syrian coastline. (See M. K. Badrakumar, Russia deploying warships in Syria - Indian Punchline, November 21, 2011)

Russia's Naval base in Tartus, Syria

Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier

Su 33 take-off from aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in the Eastern Mediterranean


UN Security Council Resolution 1929 (June 2010) had imposed a sanctions regime on Iran which was conducive to a temporary freeze in military cooperation between Iran and Russia, as well as with China. In recent developments, it would appear that military cooperation has de facto resumed following the rebuff by both China and Russia of the December 31, 2011 economic sanctions regime imposed by Washington. 

In a scenario of military escalation, Iranian troops and/or Special Forces would cross the border into Afghanistan and Iraq.

From the three existing war theaters: Afghanistan -Pakistan (Af-Pak), Iraq, Palestine, the onslaught of a war on Iran would lead to an integrated regional war.

The entire Middle East-Central Asian region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to China's Western frontier with Afghanistan and Pakistan would flare up, from the tip of the Arabian Peninsula to the Caspian Sea basin.

The Caucasus and Central Asia: Competing Military Alliances

What would be the involvement of America's "partners" in the Caucasus, namely Georgia and Azerbaijan? (See Michel Chossudovsky, The Iran War Theater's "Northern Front": Azerbaijan and the US Sponsored War on Iran, Global Research, April 9, 2007).

In Azerbaijan, the government has recently distanced itself from Washington, and has turned down its participation in joint military exercises with the US.

The bilateral US-Azerbaijan strategic agreement is said to be stagnating: 

"Baku’s desire to not to anger Moscow would seem to preclude any possibility of Azerbaijan hosting a US military facility...." (Azerbaijan: US Military Ties with Baku Are Stagnating - Experts | EurasiaNet.org, April 25, 2011).

In contrast, the Georgian government is directly supporting America's war effort against Iran. In recent developments, the Pentagon is sponsoring the construction of makeshift US military hospitals in Georgia to be used in the eventuality of a war with Iran. ( Readies for War On Iran: US Builds Military Hospitals in Georgia, Global Research, January 10, 2012)

“These are 20-bed hospitals...It’s an American project. A big war between the US and Iran is beginning in the Persian Gulf. $5 billion was allocated for the construction of these 20-bed military hospitals,” Javelidze said in an interview with Georgian paper Kviris Kronika (News of the Week) ... The construction is mainly paid from the American pocket. In addition, airports are being briskly built in Georgia... (Ibid)

What the military hospitals project conveys is that the Pentagon has already established detailed logistics pertaining to the transfer of wounded US servicemen from the Iran battlefield to nearby military hospitals in Georgia. These advanced preparations suggest that war plans are at a very advanced stage and that scenarios pertaining to military casualties have been established.

Military Alliances: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the CSTO

The countervailing military alliance to the US-NATO-Israel axis  is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as well as the overlapping Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The SCO includes Kazakhstan, the People’s Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan. The SCO includes seven former Soviet republics including Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.  Iran has observer status in the SCO. 

Uzbekistan withdrew from the NATO sponsored GUUAM military cooperation agreement. In 2005, it formally evicted the US from the Karshi-Khanabad air base, known as K2 (U.S. Evicted From Air Base In Uzbekistan, Washington Post, July 30, 2005). 

Of significance, in the Kyrgyz Republic, the new elected President Almazbek Atambayev (November 2011) stated that he intends to close down the US military base at Manas when the lease expires. (Kyrgyzstan Says United States’ Manas Air Base Will Close - NYTimes.com, November, 1, 2011)

What these developments suggest is that the former Soviet republics of Central Asia have reaffirmed their relationship to Moscow, which in turn has led the consolidation of the SCO-CSTO military bloc.

Global US Military Hegemony. Russia and China

The participation of Russia and China on the side of Iran is already de facto in view of prevailing military cooperation agreements. the transfer of weapons systems and technology to Iran, as well as the presence of Russian military advisers, training personnel, in both Iran and Syria. Moreover, Iran has Observer status in the SCO

Russia and China are fully aware that a war on Iran is a stepping stone towards a broader war. Both countries are targeted by the US and NATO. Russia is threatened on its border with the European Union, with US-NATO AMD targetted at major Russian cities. With the exception of its Northern frontier, China is surrounded by US military bases, from the Korean peninsula to the South China Sea.

Both China and Russia are perceived by Washington as a "Global Threat". China has been the target of veiled threats by President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The recent National Defense Review announced by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, envisages an expanded defense budget, with a view to containing Russia and China.

In recent development, Russia newly appointed Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin has warned Washington and Brussels that "Should anything happen to Iran, should Iran get drawn into any political or military hardships, this will be a direct threat to our national security,”

Spiralling US Defense Spending: The  Pentagon's "Big Dog" Ideology

Washington's objective  is to establish global military dominance. While the "war on terrorism" and the containment of "rogue states" still constitute the official justification and driving force, China and Russia have been tagged in US military and National Security documents as potential enemies: 

"... the U.S. military ... is seeking to dissuade rising powers, such as China, from challenging U.S. military dominance." (See Greg Jaffe, Rumsfeld details big military shift in new document, The Wall Street Journal, 11 March 2005)

How does Washington intend to reach its goal of global military hegemony?

Through spiralling defense spending and the continued growth of the US weapons industry, requiring a massive compression of all categories of government expenditure.

Implemented at   the crossroads of the most serious economic crisis in American history, the ongoing increase in defense spending feeds this new undeclared arms race with China and Russia, with vast amounts of tax dollars channelled to America's defense contractors.

"The stated objective is to make the process of developing advanced weapons systems "so expensive", that no other power on earth including China and Russia will able to compete or challenge "the Big Dog", without jeopardizing its civilian economy" Michel Chossudovsky, New Undeclared Arms Race:, Global Research, March 17, 2005)

This "Big Dog" ideology, a term coined by the Pentagon, is a precondition for the "Globalization of War". It is a diabolical agenda of enhancing America's killing machine by dismantling social programs and impoverishing people across the US.

"[A]t the core of this strategy is the belief that the US must maintain such a large lead in crucial [military] technologies that growing powers [ Russia, China, Iran] will conclude that it is too expensive for these countries to even think about trying to run with the big dog. They will realize that it is not worth sacrificing their economic growth, said one defense consultant who was hired to draft sections of the document." (Greg Jaffe, Rumsfeld details big military shift in new document, The Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2005)

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TABLE 1 THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN: MILITARY CAPABILITIES

Total Population: 77,891,220 [2011]

Available Manpower: 46,247,556 [2011]

Fit for Military Service: 39,556,497 [2011]

Of Military Age: 1,392,483 [2011]

Active Military: 545,000 [2011]

Active Reserve: 650,000 [2011]

LAND ARMY

Total Land Weapons: 12,393

Tanks: 1,793 [2011]

Armoured Personnel Carrier/Infantry Fighting Vehicles (APC/IFV): 1,560 [2011]

Towed Artillery: 1,575 [2011]

SPGs: 865 [2011]

MLRSs: 200 [2011]

Mortars: 5,000 [2011]

Anti Tank (AT) Weapons: 1,400 [2011]

Anti-Aerial (AA) Weapons: 1,701 [2011]

Logistical Vehicles: 12,000

AIR POWER

Total Aircraft: 1,030 [2011]

Helicopters: 357 [2011]

Serviceable Airports: 319 [2011]

NAVAL POWER

Total Navy Ships: 261

Merchant Marine Strength: 74 [2011]

Major Ports & Terminals: 3 Aircraft Carriers: 0 [2011]

Destroyers: 3 [2011]

Submarines: 19 [2011]

Frigates: 5 [2011]

Patrol Craft: 198 [2011]

Mine Warfare Craft: 7 [2011]

Amphibious Assault Craft: 26 [2011]

SOURCES:

http://www.iraniandefence.com/iran-army/

and http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Iran

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Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (Emeritus) at the University of Ottawa. He is the Founder and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal and Editor of the globalresearch.ca website. He is the author of The Globalization of Poverty and The New World Order (2003) and America's "War on Terrorism"(2005). His most recent book is entitled Towards a World War III Scenario: The Dangers of Nuclear War (2011). He has taught as Visiting Professor at universities in Western Europe, South East Asia and Latin America, acted as an adviser to governments of developing countries and as a consultant for the several international organizations. Prof. Chossudovsky is a signatory of the Kuala Lumpur declaration to criminalize war and recipient of the Human Rights Prize of the Society for the Protection of Civil Rights and Human Dignity (GBM), Berlin, Germany. He is also a contributor to the Encyclopaedia Britannica. His writings have been published in more than twenty languages.

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NEW RELEASE: GLOBAL RESEARCH E-BOOKTowards a World War III Scenario

by Michel Chossudovsky

Cashless Society: India Implements First Biometric ID Program for all of its 1.2 Billion Residents

Brandon Turbeville
Infowars.com
January 12, 2012
http://www.infowars.com/cashless-society-india-implements-first-biometric-id-program-for-all-of-its-1-2-billion-residents/


Over the past few months, I have written several articles dealing with the coming cashless society and the developing technological control grid. I also have written about the surge of government attempts to gain access to and force the use of biometric data for the purposes of identification, tracking, tracing, and surveillance.<
Unfortunately, the reactions I receive from the general public are almost always the same. While some recognize the danger, most simply deny that governments have the capability or even the desire to create a system in which the population is constantly monitored by virtue of their most private and even biological information. Others, either gripped by apathy or ignorance, cannot believe that the gadgets given to them from the massive tech corporations are designed for anything other than their entertainment and enjoyment.
However, current events in India should serve not just as a warning, but also as a foreshadowing of the events to come in the Western world, specifically the United States.
Recently, India has launched a nationwide program involving the allocation of a Unique Identification Number (UID) to every single one of its 1.2 billion residents. Each of the numbers will be tied to the biometric data of the recipient using three different forms of information – fingerprints, iris scans, and pictures of the face. All ten digits of the hand will be recorded, and both eyes will be scanned.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51Num5h7itk&feature=player_embedded - WATCH THIS VIDEO CLIP

The project will be directed by the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) under the premise of preventing identity theft and social welfare fraud. India has rather extensive social welfare and safety net programs, ranging from medical support and heating assistance to others aimed at helping the poor. Fraud is a rampant problem in India, especially in relation to these programs due to a preponderance of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats who often stuff welfare rolls with fake names and take the money for themselves.
Yet, although the justification for the billion person database is the increased ability to accurately disperse social welfare benefits, it will not be just the Indian government’s social welfare programs that have access to and utilize the UIDAI. Indeed, even before the program has been completed, major banks, state/local governments, and other institutions are planning to use the UIDAI for identification verification purposes and, of course, payment  and accessibility.

As Aaron Saenz of the Singularity Hub writes:
Yet the UID is going to be used for much more than social welfare programs. The UIDAI is in discussion with many institutions (banks, local/state governments, etc.) to allow them to use the UID as a means of identity verification. These institutions will pay the UIDAI some fee to cover costs and generate revenue. There seems to be little doubt that once it is established, the UID will become a preferred method (if not the preferred method) of identification in India.
Saenz also sees the eventuality of the UIDAI program becoming a means of payment and accessibility. He continues:
Ultimately, I wouldn’t be surprised if the UID, with its biometric data, could be used as a means of payment (when linked to a bank account), or as an access key to homes and cars. Purchase a meal with your fingerprint and unlock your door with the twinkle in your eye. Similar results could be expected in other nations that adopted biometric identification systems.<
Saenz, and other proponents of the UID (UIDAI), have been diligent in pointing out that the program “is just a number, not an ID card.” However, this claim is debatable. Saenz himself admits that State issued driver’s licenses and identification cards will reference the UID information.
The question then becomes how much of that information will be referenced, and how that will be accomplished? Will the information be included on the card? Will only part of the information be included on the card? Or will the card reference back to the digital UID information to be then reconciled with the information that is present on the card? Although the UID is obviously going to be utilized by other institutions outside of the social welfare programs, no answers to these questions have been provided.
But, in the end, does it really matter if the information is collated into an ID card format if the government already has access to that information digitally? More than likely, a national ID card will appear as a supplement to the database already created by UID.  Regardless, the private biometric information has still been taken from the individual. The database is still there.
Indeed, government “officials” have already stated that the database will be used by intelligence agencies for the purpose of monitoring “bank transactions, cellphone purchases and the movements of individuals and groups suspected of fomenting terrorism.” This will be very easy to do since the UID number will be entered anytime an individual “accesses services from government departments, driver’s license offices and hospitals, as well as insurance, telecom, and banking companies.”
Nevertheless, proponents have also touted the fact that, at this point, the UID program is optional. But the program will obviously not be optional for very long. As I have discussed in previous articles, the introduction of a program such as a national ID card, biometric data, or cashless payment technologies is always followed by the program becoming mandatory. The ultimate goal of an all-encompassing cashless surveillance program with no opt-out provisions is always introduced by stealth and the Gradualist Technique.
At first, the program is introduced as a way to speed up transactions, increase efficiency, and provide convenience. Soon, however, governments and businesses begin to transition out of the older methods of payment and identification and focus more on the new technology. Identification using the traditional methods remain as an option, but become viewed as cumbersome. Eventually, the alternative methods are phased out completely and mandates replace what was once a personal choice.
As soon as Indian banks, businesses, and government social service offices begin to require identification using the UID, the ability to remain off the system and lead what passes for a normal life will disappear.
This is exactly the intention with India’s new biometric ID program. In fact, the cashless society is a stated goal of the UID program. CEO of MindTree’s IT Services, the company that was awarded the government contract for development and maintenance of the UID, explained in an interview with ComputerWeekly that the “ID scheme will support a cashless society. He said all vendors will have a biometric reader and citizens can pay for things with a fingerprint scan. Even a bag of rice.”
No doubt, even after such an admission by a man who was instrumental in the development of the program, many who read this article will still dismiss it as a “conspiracy theory.”
Nonetheless, this new monumental data mining effort by the Indian government dovetails with recent efforts in the Western world to develop an electronic surveillance grid capable of tracking, tracing, and recording every single movement and communication of every single citizen within a nation’s borders.
New technologies which are being introduced inside the United States, the UK, and Australia such as vein scanners, biometric employee time and attendance systems, voice recognition devices, and behavior analysis systems are all geared toward Total Information Awareness of every human being on the planet.
Only a totalitarian form of government would desire this information; and only a very determined totalitarian government would actively work toward establishing it. India is only the first nation to openly sweep up its entire national population into such a massive biometric database net. We cannot let our nation be the next.
This post first appeared on Activist Post.
Brandon Turbeville is an author out of Mullins, South Carolina. He has a Bachelor’s Degree from Francis Marion University where he earned the Pee Dee Electric Scholar’s Award as an undergraduate. He has had numerous articles published dealing with a wide variety of subjects including health, economics, and civil liberties. He also the author of Codex Alimentarius – The End of Health Freedom, 7 Real Conspiracies and Five Sense Solutions. Brandon Turbeville is available for podcast, radio, and TV interviews. Please contact us at activistpost@gmail.com

Blast kills Iran nuclear expert amid 'covert war'

Yahoo News - 12th January 2012
http://za.news.yahoo.com/blast-kills-iran-nuclear-expert-amid-covert-war-191131426.html

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — It seemed a clockwork killing: Motorcycle riders flashed by and attached a magnetic bomb onto a car carrying a nuclear scientist working at Iran's main uranium enrichment facility. By the time the blast tore apart the silver Peugeot, the bike was blocks away, weaving through Tehran traffic after what Iran calls the latest strike in an escalating covert war.

The Wednesday attack — which instantly killed the scientist and fatally wounded his driver — was at least the fourth targeted hit against a member of Iran's nuclear brain trust in two years. Tehran quickly blamed Israeli-linked agents backed by the U.S. and Britain.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton denied any U.S. role in the slaying, and the Obama administration condemned the attack. However, provocative hints from Jerusalem reinforced the perception of an organized and clandestine campaign to set back Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The day before the attack, Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz was quoted as telling a parliamentary panel that 2012 would be a "critical year" for Iran — in part because of "things that happen to it unnaturally."

The blast killed Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a chemistry expert and a director of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, the centerpiece of Iran's expanding program to make nuclear fuel. Roshan, 32, had planned to attend a memorial later Wednesday for another nuclear researcher who was killed in a similar pinpoint blast two years ago, Iranian media said.
"A heinous act," said Iran's Atomic Energy Organization of Wednesday's bombing.
It added a tone of defiance. "We will continue our (nuclear) path without any doubt ... Our path is irreversible," said the statement carried on state television.
The state news agency IRNA said Roshan had "organizational links" to Iran's nuclear agency, which suggests a direct role in key aspects of the program. Another news agency, the semiofficial Mehr, said Roshan had been interviewed by inspectors from the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency — which Iran has accused of placing its scientists in peril by including their names in public reports.
Natanz, in central Iran, is the country's main enrichment site. Officials said this week they were expanding some operations to an underground site south of Tehran with more advanced equipment.

The U.S. and its allies are pressuring Iran to halt uranium enrichment, a key element of the nuclear program that the West suspects is aimed at producing atomic weapons. Uranium enriched to low levels can be used as nuclear fuel, but at higher levels it can be used as material for a nuclear warhead.
Iran denies it is trying to make nuclear weapons, saying its program is for peaceful purposes only and is geared toward generating electricity and producing medical radioisotopes to treat cancer patients.
The years of virtual stalemate between Iran and the West appear to be shifting into a new period of heightened pressures and tensions.
Russia strongly warned the West on Wednesday against any attack on Iran, saying it would upset global security.

Military action would be a "grave mistake, a flagrant error" with far-reaching consequences for regional and global stability, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the ITAR-Tass news agency. "It could shake the foundations of the international system."
Tehran has accused Israel's Mossad, the CIA and Britain's spy agency of engaging in an underground "terrorism" campaign against nuclear-related targets, including at least three other slayings since early 2010 and the release of a malicious computer virus known at Stuxnet in 2010 that disrupted controls of some centrifuges — a component in nuclear fuel production. All three countries have denied the Iranian accusations.
Speaking in Washington, Clinton strongly denied any U.S. role in the latest attack.
"I want to categorically deny any United States involvement in any kind of act of violence inside Iran," she said. "We believe there has to be an understanding between Iran, its neighbors and the international community that finds a way forward for it to end its provocative behavior, end its search for nuclear weapons and rejoin the international community and be a productive member of it."
Israeli officials, however, hinted at covert campaigns against Iran without directly admitting involvement.

"Many bad things have been happening to Iran in the recent period," said Mickey Segal, a former director of the Israeli military's Iranian intelligence department. "Iran is in a situation where pressure on it is mounting, and the latest assassination joins the pressure that the Iranian regime is facing."
Iranian authorities pointed the finger at arch-foe Israel.
First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said Israeli agents were behind the assassination, but cannot "prevent progress" in what Iran claims are peaceful nuclear efforts.
Roshan was inside the Peugeot 405 together with two others when the bomb exploded near Gol Nabi Street in north Tehran, Fars reported. It said Roshan's driver later died at a hospital from wounds sustained in the attack. An 85-year old passer-by was reportedly wounded in the blast.

Fars described the explosion as a "terrorist attack" targeting Roshan, a graduate of the prestigious Sharif University of Technology in Tehran. Police draped the bomb-ravaged car with a blue tarp and hosed blood from the pavement. Some bits of the vehicle were hurled into the bare branches of trees.
Roshan was a chemistry expert who was involved in building polymeric layers for gas separation, which is the use of various membranes to isolate gases. He was also deputy director of commercial affairs for the Natanz uranium enrichment plant in central Iran. According to conservative news website mashreghnews.ir, Roshan was in charge of purchasing and supplying equipment for the facility.
Natanz remains the mainstay of Iran's uranium labs. But Iran said this week it was expanding some operations to a bunker-like site south of Tehran protected under 300 feet (90 meters) of rock. The existence of the Fordo facility has been known for more than two years, but some Western officials fear the move could be another step toward developing nuclear arms.
The conservative news website, alef.ir, posted several papers to which Roshan contributed. It said his specialty, polymeric layers, has uses in uranium enrichment by having uranium gas pass through filtering membranes.

Since December, Iran has held or announced a series of war games that included threats to close the Gulf's vital Strait of Hormuz — the passageway for about one-sixth of the world's oil — in retaliation for stronger U.S.-led sanctions.
"Assassinations, military threats and political pressures ... The enemy insists on the tactic of creating fear to stop Iran's peaceful nuclear activities," Fars quoted lawmaker Javad Jahangirzadeh as saying in reaction to the blast.
A similar bomb explosion on Jan. 12, 2010 killed Tehran University professor Masoud Ali Mohammadi, a senior physics professor. He died when a bomb-rigged motorcycle exploded near his car as he was about to leave for work.

In November 2010, a pair of back-to-back bomb attacks in different parts of the capital killed another nuclear scientist and wounded one more.
The slain scientist, Majid Shahriari, was a member of the nuclear engineering faculty at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran and cooperated with the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. The wounded scientist, Fereidoun Abbasi, was almost immediately appointed head of Iran's atomic agency.
Shahriari's expertise — neutron transport — lies at the heart of nuclear chain reactions in reactors and bombs. And Abbasi, now Iran's nuclear chief, has been described as a laser expert and one of the few top Iranian specialists in nuclear isotope separation.
In July 2011, motorcycle-riding gunmen killed Darioush Rezaeinejad, an electronics student. Other reports identified him as a scientist involved in suspected Iranian attempts to make nuclear weapons.

Rezaeinejad allegedly participated in developing high-voltage switches, a key component in setting off the explosions needed to trigger a nuclear warhead.
"Instead of actually fighting a conventional war, Western powers and their allies appear to be relying on covert war tactics to try to delay and degrade Iran's nuclear advancement," said Theodore Karasik, a security expert at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.
Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born analyst based in Israel, said Iran's leadership is being pushed toward a decision on whether to "retaliate or compromise" as sanctions squeeze the economy and undercut the value of the Iranian rial.
"From the international consensus that we can see against Iran, even if (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) does retaliate, it's not very likely that the pressure — sanctions and isolation — would ease," he said. "He's in a tight spot."
___
Murphy reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press writer Amy Teibel in Jerusalem contributed to this report.

Maize prices hit record highs

 IOL News - 11th January 2012

http://www.iol.co.za/business/business-news/maize-prices-hit-record-highs-1.1210944

The recent increases in grain prices and the maize shortfall forecast for 2012 are set to apply enormous pressure on industries that use the commodity.

Food industry insiders say escalating prices and commodity shortages will hit hard on storage companies, the animal feed industry, consumers, and the poor.

The only winners will be grain producers, who will reap the rewards of record high prices. Since the rapid price increases, farmers’ buying power has increased significantly.

According to Christo Booyens, the assistant general manager for Grainlink grain marketing at Senwes, silo grain stocks may be depleted by April 30. 

However, this will depend on the availability of a pipeline of supply that can be carried over from the old to the new season. If there is no pipeline, and taking into consideration that 500 000 tons of white maize is consumed every month, then stocks may be depleted by the end of this month.

“Milling companies withdrew maize from silos so the stock is lower than normal. The stock is running out quicker and we expect a lower storage income,” Booyens said.

The grain price increases have been felt by consumers since early last year, as chicken prices increased by up to 10 percent in 2011 and were expected to increase by a further 20 percent this year. 

Since March last year, maize prices have risen by 60 percent.

Grain SA has forecast a shortfall of between 200 000 and 500 000 tons this year. Last year there was a surplus of more than 2 million tons.

The increases have been attributed to traders who sold much of the surplus from the bumper crop to foreign buyers.

Analysts are unsure how much the resultant shortage will cost local consumers.

White maize for March delivery touched a record high of R2 722 a ton on the SA Futures Exchange on Monday before closing R2 up at R2 685. The contract gained a further R1 to close at R2 686 a ton yesterday. 

Chris Venter, the chief executive of Afgri, said volumes were down, and performance of the silos would depend on grain stock levels to come in during the July harvesting period.

The industry was expected to see increased margin pressure on the processing of grain products. However, the higher prices were positive from an industry viewpoint in spending by farmers. 

“We expect prices to remain high. The question is the size of the new crop. We had good rain, so we need to wait for about six to eight weeks for a good indication of what the crop will look like,” Venter noted.

“For the time being, there is no additional stock available, I can’t give specifics, but we will see a reduction across the industry.”

Chris Schutte, the chief executive of Astral Foods, the listed chicken producer that owns brands such as County Fair and EarlyBird Farm, said maize was at an all-time high because of record exports. 

“We believe that exporters were irresponsible and didn’t check the situation… In hindsight we exported too much maize, now we have to import,” he said.

In addition, it did not make sense that maize had been exported at around R1 600 a ton, and now the grain was being brought into the country at almost R2 800 a ton.

Schutte attributed this to the “net effect of a free market system”, which had benefited maize producers.

“Maize farmers will benefit, they will buy more land, tractors and fertiliser.” - Ayanda Mdluli

Kodak prepares for Chapter 11 filing - report - Bankruptcy

Yahoo News - Reuters - 05th January 2012

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/kodak-prepares-chapter-11-filing-193552809.html

REUTERS - Eastman Kodak (EK.N) is preparing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection filing in case it is unable to sell its digital patents to raise capital, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The once-iconic photographic film pioneer is in talks with potential lenders to secure about $1 billion in debtor-in possession financing to sustain Kodak through bankruptcy proceedings, the Journal reported, citing unidentified sources.

The Chapter 11 filing could come as soon as this month or early February, the newspaper said.

Kodak shares fell about 28 percent to 47 cents on the New York Stock Exchange following the online report, which dampened investors' hopes that the company could arrange a quick sale of its patents or a financing lifeline to keep it afloat.

A spokesman for Kodak declined to comment, saying its policy is not to comment on market rumors or speculation.

Kodak warned in November that it might not survive 2012 if it was unable to secure $500 million in new debt or sell its patents. The company's cash had been shrinking as sales of its consumer products have failed to keep up with its heavy cost base, which includes employees and offices around the globe.

In a two-day meeting in mid-December of the company's board, management and advisers, executives were briefed on how to fund Kodak during bankruptcy proceedings if efforts to sell its patents fall short, a person familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal. Kodak needed to sell the patents or borrow more money to stave off bankruptcy, the company told directors.

As part of its efforts to raise cash, Kodak has been looking since last July for a buyer for its 1,100 digital patents, with the help of investment bank Lazard Ltd (LAZ.N).

The Journal said Kodak is still trying to sell the patents, which could help it stave off a bankruptcy filing. If Kodak does seek Chapter 11 protection, it could try to sell its patents through a bankruptcy auction supervised by a court

Kodak invented the digital camera in 1975 when one of its engineers developed a prototype that was as big as a toaster and captured black and white images. But it failed to capitalize on that innovation, and it was only when Kodak's film business began to decline a decade ago that it tried to catch up with rivals by launching a mass-market line of digital cameras.

The company has been beset by bankruptcy speculation since it drew down a credit line last September. It also hired restructuring firm FTI and confirmed that a law firm known for dealing with bankruptcy was doing work for it.

Last week, Kodak announced the resignation of three directors, including two representatives of private equity firm KKR & Co (KKR.N) and a professor from the University of California, leading some industry experts to speculate that a Chapter 11 filing was imminent.

On Tuesday, Kodak said its stock may be removed from the New York Stock Exchange if the company cannot boost its share price over the next six months.

Kodak, whose cash fell to $862 million at the end of September from $1.4 billion a year earlier, is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on January 26.

The company would need to seek debtor-in-possession financing in any bankruptcy filing to continue operating while it ran an auction for the patents. Kodak is in discussions with large banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Citigroup Inc (C.N), and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) for those funds, people familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal.

Kodak has also held discussions with bondholders about a bankruptcy financing package, the people said. Cerberus Capital Management LP, a hedge fund that doesn't hold Kodak debt, has also held talks with Kodak on behalf of a group willing to provide the financing, the people said.

(Reporting By Liana B. Baker; editing by Mark Porter, Carol Bishopric; Editing by Richard Chang)

@YahooFinanceUK on Twitter

Stransberry's Investment Advisory - Very Important - Watch

Click on the link below to view a slide show showing facts and statistics of prices increasing concerning food, commodoties etc.  This is information from Stransberry's Investment Advisory;

http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1103PSIEOAVD/PPSIMC79/PR

China tightens hold on internet

Mon, 26 Dec 2011 8:13 - Iafrica.com News
http://technology.iafrica.com/news/770033.html

Shanghai will require microblog users to register under their real names from Monday, state media said, the latest local government in China to implement the rule after a spate of violent protests.

Beijing and the southern province of Guangdong have also ordered users of weibos - microblogs similar to Twitter - to register using their real names, as authorities tighten their grip on the Internet.

The move comes amid a surge in social unrest that has been concentrated in the wealthy manufacturing heartland of Guangdong.

Residents protesting against land seizures and a power plant in the province recently posted photos and reports of their demonstrations on weibos, defying official efforts to block news of the incidents.

With more than half a billion Chinese now online, authorities are concerned about the power of the Internet to influence public opinion in a country that maintains tight controls on its traditional media outlets.

Shanghai said the new rules aim to "foster a healthy Internet culture" and improve management over social networking, the official Xinhua news agency reported late Sunday.

The guidelines will apply to both private and corporate users in Shanghai.

Previously, users have been able to set up weibo accounts under assumed names, making it more difficult for authorities to track them, and allowing them to set up new accounts if existing ones are shut down by censors.

Despite official censorship of the web, ordinary Chinese are increasingly using weibos to vent their anger and frustration over official corruption, scandals and disasters.

A weibo user is believed to have broken the news of a deadly high-speed rail crash in China in July that provoked widespread condemnation of the government - much of it online.